Unripe for "Dialogue"

The former Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, the country's most powerful opposition leader, called Sunday for dialogue with militants, citing the example of the Northern Ireland peace process. President Zardari and the current government says it will negotiate only with groups that renounce violence. Realistically the Taliban militants in the tribal region are unlikely to renounce violence anytime soon, ESPECIALLY when it is believed Osama bin Laden is hiding in the region.

The bottom line is that the increased violence and conflict between Taliban militants and pro-government forces in the tribal region in Pakistan renders the country unripe for mediation. While Sharif can remain hopeful for a future outcome in Pakistan similar to the Northern Ireland peace process (which has yet to become consigned to history itself), it is not in the country’s best interest to focus on such an unrealistic means to accomplish the goal of peace.

What Sharif fails to account for is the Northern Ireland peace process was over 150 years in the making, while the conflict in the tribal region in Pakistan started relatively recently. Unlike the conflict in Northern Ireland, the conflict in Pakistan has been developed and exacerbated by external and transnational conflicts, especially the war in Afghanistan and continued al-Qaida activity.

The Northern Ireland peace process was mediated by the US with support from Ireland and the United Kingdom, giving legitimacy to the conflicting groups in Northern Ireland. No outside countries have voiced a willingness to nurture a dialogue with the Taliban militants and examine the needs of the Taliban militants.

While Sharif may want to get behind the Taliban militants and give them some legitimacy, unless George W. Bush invites Osama bin-Laden to chat at the White House, like Bill Clinton did with Gerry Adams (the leader of the IRA), Sharif’s call for a dialogue similar to the Northern Ireland peace process is just not going to happen.

Where the current leadership in Pakistan needs to look is towards the future. Taliban militants must not gain a stronger foothold within the country as it is currently in a very volatile situation. The violence in the north is compounded with the dire economic crisis Pakistan has been experiencing over the past year, which accrues to the benefit of militant groups.

The downward economic spiral aids recruitment to extremist groups because it forces more poor families to send their children to free madrassa schools (teaching exclusively religious curriculums). As the former Interior Minister acknowledges, "The canvas of terrorism is expanding by the minute."

"It's not only ideological motivation. Put that together with economic deprivation and you have a ready-made force of Taliban, al-Qaida, whatever you want to call them. You will see suicide bombers churned out by the hundred," he warns.

The secular pro-western government in Pakistan is getting a lot of heat from its citizens for submissively cooperating with US military operations on the Afghan and Pakistan border. With the country on the brink of a revolution, Zardari’s government cannot risk defeat by the Taliban militants. At this point in time in the history of the Pakistani tribal conflict, dialogue is not a conceivable notion. As long as groups like the Awami National Party, the current ruling coalition based in the insurgency plagued tribal region, question the sincerity of the Pakistani Army’s pursuit of the extremists, there is too much corruption and duplicity for a peace process to succeed.

Government organizations, internal corruption in the Pakistani government, party and group alliances, and NATO and US operations, along with domestic Pakistani issues like the 30% inflation rate need to be addressed before a “dialogue” can be used to advance the peace process in the tribal region.

The Northern Ireland peace process is a desirable course but the “process” should be re-evaluated, developed and tailored to the Pakistan tribal region situation. While the IRA was an extremely dangerous terrorist organization, it can by no means be used as a comparison to al-Qaida that spans globally. President Zardari should remain steadfast in his unwillingness to negotiate with groups who do not renounce violence but maintain a pro-active role in regards to the Taliban militants and their operations in the tribal region.

Sharif should focus on garnering support for the emergency $10bn bailout from the international community that the Pakistani Parliament is seeking or work on the severe shortage of electricity that is crippling Pakistani businesses and households.