Kashmir: Up and Down

Fruit had become the symbol of peace in the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan last Tuesday because of the re-opening of trade routes through the region, but sadly dismal relations between the countries returned only a week later on Sunday. India and Pakistan re-opened the trade route through Kashmir last Tuesday; it was the first time the route had been used in more than sixty years. The reopening of the route, which runs across the Line of Control that divides the Himalayan region, is one of several "confidence-building measures" agreed on as part of a peace pact made by the two nuclear-armed neighbors in 2004.

The reopening of the route through Kashmir is especially potent. Kashmir, which both countries rule in part but claim in full, constitutes the core of the disagreement between India and Pakistan sparking three wars since the partition of the subcontinent in 1947. Kashmir has a Muslim majority closely tied with Pakistan but a Hindu ruling elite remaining loyal to India.

The timing of the road's reopening heightens its significance due to months of growing antagonism between India and Pakistan. Unfortunately, the measure didn't prove compelling enough to convince either side to fully commit to peace. Just five days after trade routes opened and peace seemed a viable outcome for Kashmir, Indian soldiers shot dead five members of Kashmir's largest militant group, Hizbul Mujahideen, during an overnight gun battle Sunday.

The progress and hope made possible by the trade route was quickly overshadowed by hasty Indian military action. The depth and range of the Kashmir Conflict is so great, India cannot wholeheartedly commit to righting the situation. India is currently deploying thousands of troops to its area of Kashmir to stop protests on the 61st anniversary of Indian rule as a result of the militant group member’s deaths.

While the rest of India is commended on the success of their democratic government, both Pakistani and Indian Kashmir areas of control are subject to foreign rule. Outside ruling countries originally fueled the conflict through foreign actors like extreme Pakistani Islamists and the Indian Military, but recent uproar has been attributed to Kashmiri citizens, Muslim and Hindi.

There is a deep sense of alienation in the Kashmir Valley due mainly to Indian misrule and mistreatment of the Kashmiri people. Indian remains steadfast in their attempt to retain control of the region and refuses to consider Kashmiri self rule. Pakistan is far more open to Kashmiri self-rule.

What remains problematic for Indian ruled areas of Kashmir is what will become of the minority Hindi population in the region. At present, Hindi rulers are able to buffer conflicts between the Muslim and Hindi citizenry. This constitutes a stumbling block for India in considering Kashmiri self rule. But by not considering self-rule, further division amongst the Kashmir valley is likely to ensue.

It is time for India to rethink its Kashmir policy and actively examine, rather than ignore, options leading to peace in the area, including the demilitarization of the Valley. This is necessary not only for overall peace and progress in the region but under the current circumstances, also to nip communal anger in the bud.

As protests die down in the region and the anniversary of Indian Rule concludes, fruit will regain the main stage in Kashmir. The two countries will recognize the significance of the trade routes and the people of Kashmir will look to the future of their state and not dwell on the past of Indian rule. The Kashmiri conflict has been overlooked by too many for too long. Snippets of issues need to become complete details to garner more support for peace in the Kashmir Valley.

Unripe for "Dialogue"

The former Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, the country's most powerful opposition leader, called Sunday for dialogue with militants, citing the example of the Northern Ireland peace process. President Zardari and the current government says it will negotiate only with groups that renounce violence. Realistically the Taliban militants in the tribal region are unlikely to renounce violence anytime soon, ESPECIALLY when it is believed Osama bin Laden is hiding in the region.

The bottom line is that the increased violence and conflict between Taliban militants and pro-government forces in the tribal region in Pakistan renders the country unripe for mediation. While Sharif can remain hopeful for a future outcome in Pakistan similar to the Northern Ireland peace process (which has yet to become consigned to history itself), it is not in the country’s best interest to focus on such an unrealistic means to accomplish the goal of peace.

What Sharif fails to account for is the Northern Ireland peace process was over 150 years in the making, while the conflict in the tribal region in Pakistan started relatively recently. Unlike the conflict in Northern Ireland, the conflict in Pakistan has been developed and exacerbated by external and transnational conflicts, especially the war in Afghanistan and continued al-Qaida activity.

The Northern Ireland peace process was mediated by the US with support from Ireland and the United Kingdom, giving legitimacy to the conflicting groups in Northern Ireland. No outside countries have voiced a willingness to nurture a dialogue with the Taliban militants and examine the needs of the Taliban militants.

While Sharif may want to get behind the Taliban militants and give them some legitimacy, unless George W. Bush invites Osama bin-Laden to chat at the White House, like Bill Clinton did with Gerry Adams (the leader of the IRA), Sharif’s call for a dialogue similar to the Northern Ireland peace process is just not going to happen.

Where the current leadership in Pakistan needs to look is towards the future. Taliban militants must not gain a stronger foothold within the country as it is currently in a very volatile situation. The violence in the north is compounded with the dire economic crisis Pakistan has been experiencing over the past year, which accrues to the benefit of militant groups.

The downward economic spiral aids recruitment to extremist groups because it forces more poor families to send their children to free madrassa schools (teaching exclusively religious curriculums). As the former Interior Minister acknowledges, "The canvas of terrorism is expanding by the minute."

"It's not only ideological motivation. Put that together with economic deprivation and you have a ready-made force of Taliban, al-Qaida, whatever you want to call them. You will see suicide bombers churned out by the hundred," he warns.

The secular pro-western government in Pakistan is getting a lot of heat from its citizens for submissively cooperating with US military operations on the Afghan and Pakistan border. With the country on the brink of a revolution, Zardari’s government cannot risk defeat by the Taliban militants. At this point in time in the history of the Pakistani tribal conflict, dialogue is not a conceivable notion. As long as groups like the Awami National Party, the current ruling coalition based in the insurgency plagued tribal region, question the sincerity of the Pakistani Army’s pursuit of the extremists, there is too much corruption and duplicity for a peace process to succeed.

Government organizations, internal corruption in the Pakistani government, party and group alliances, and NATO and US operations, along with domestic Pakistani issues like the 30% inflation rate need to be addressed before a “dialogue” can be used to advance the peace process in the tribal region.

The Northern Ireland peace process is a desirable course but the “process” should be re-evaluated, developed and tailored to the Pakistan tribal region situation. While the IRA was an extremely dangerous terrorist organization, it can by no means be used as a comparison to al-Qaida that spans globally. President Zardari should remain steadfast in his unwillingness to negotiate with groups who do not renounce violence but maintain a pro-active role in regards to the Taliban militants and their operations in the tribal region.

Sharif should focus on garnering support for the emergency $10bn bailout from the international community that the Pakistani Parliament is seeking or work on the severe shortage of electricity that is crippling Pakistani businesses and households.

A Backpacker or an al-Qaeda Agent?

The London Times is running an article about an interesting development in Pakistan this morning after an American Jude Kenan was arrested at a tribal area checkpoint. Rumors are swirling as to why in the world the 20 year old was traveling around the militant infested tribal area of Pakistan. He was found in the area where western intelligence agencies believe Osama bin Laden is hiding. Is he a US spy, an al-Qaeda agent, a would-be American Taleb, an ambitious young journalist or just a backpacker pushing the boundaries of adventure? The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad is still waiting for confirmation on the Pakistani police reports. Interestingly the situation sounds similar to the capture of a US citizen John Walker Lindh in November 2001 while he was fighting with the Taliban.

Zardari Behaving Badly

You can add high-ranking Islamic clerics and Pakistani feminist groups to Pakistan’s president Asif Zardari’s to his opposition. Not only did Zardari’s inappropriate comments towards Governor Palin during their meeting last week get him in hot water with the Pakistani feminists, he was also issued Fatwa (an Islamic edict) regarding the meeting. What is most peculiar about the Fatwa is that it was not issued until last Thursday, more than a week after the meeting took place. Most of the media including Time magazine thought the whole incidence would blow over, but the Fatwa has made the meeting even more controversial. While the feminists accused the president of sexism and impropriety, the Fatwa was issued because the president shamed the nation with his "indecent gestures, filthy remarks, and repeated praise of a non-Muslim lady wearing a short skirt" according to an article in The Guardian. While the incident is likely soon be forgotten because of the much more pressing issues in Pakistan like the failing economy and militancy on the rise. Zardari has got to be a little nervous though because many Fatwa’s have led to the assinations of Islamic rulers like the Egyptian president Anwar el-Sadat in October 1981. “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer” seems like fitting advice for Zardari.

Pakistan and Zardari Can't Get a Break

The terrorist attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad on Saturday caused 65 deaths and 270 injuries, not to mention the devastating effect the attack will have on an already fragile Pakistani economy. The attack will accelerate capital flight in Pakistan and demonstrate Pakistan’s instability, discouraging future investment in the country.
Hopefully the bombing in Islamabad will wake everyone up and focus the U.N. and President Bush on all of Pakistan not just the lawless tribal regions.

Check out the article from today about Pakistan in The Wall Street Journal.

A Nuclear Armed State on the Brink of a Meltdown

There is no doubt that Pakistan is in trouble. Benazir Bhutto’s assassination last December has left the country in a downward spiral. Pakistan is on the brink of a balance-of-payment crisis with inflation as high as 24% and foreign reserves quickly depleting, the American financial crisis is just a blip on the radar in comparison to the Pakistani economy. The current Taliban insurgency in the Northern region of the country, combined with US military raids, and the bombing that occurred on September 6th that killed over 30 people, one of 400 Pakistani suicide bombings this year only add to the chaotic environment and unstable government in Pakistan. The country is on the brink of a revolution, which the US should be very wary of.

Asif Zardari, Benazir Bhutto’s husband was recently elected as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. He comes to office with a slew of criminal charges and a corrupt political background. Zardari not only has to overcome his suspicious past but he also needs reunite fractured Pakistan. Pakistan needs Zardari to be a reformer; the Biden-Lugar non-military aid will only work to develop the northern tribal regions in Pakistan if extensive civil-service reform occurs. How willing will police officers be to stop accepting bribes if Zardari continues to do so himself? In a Time article by Aryn Baker the important distinction is made that the US cannot only focus on Pakistan’s security needs, but the US must also pay equal attention to Pakistan’s economic development, education, and health care. If the US and Pakistan fail to put the needs of the country’s citizens first, the Pakistani people will turn to the Taliban.

How successful Zardari will be in realigning with the US government, and implementing the necessary changes in Pakistan remains to be seen. These changes need to be implemented soon or there will be far greater problems with the nuclear armed state on the brink of a revolution.

On another interesting note, articles in The New York Times and The Economist had diverging views on how successful Zardari will be.