Japan's Sphere of Influence

Japan has been brewing a storm no one in the US seems aware of or concerned with. Current events in North Korea, like President Bush removing North Korea off the terrorist list, supposed nuclear inspections are to take place, but have yet to happen, and North Korean President Kim Jong-Ill’s recent removal from public life due to illness has Japan along with South Korea in a very alert status. While the US has been preoccupied with the election and subsequent results, the only English speaking newspaper to run stories on Japan’s uncharacteristically aggressive stance in relation to North Korea is The London Times.

The North Korean issue is a much more pressing matter for Japan, and recent actions by the US or rather inaction in the Japanese eyes, has evoked a lot of anger in the country, especially with the conservative ruling majority in the country. The Times reported:

Furious officials in Tokyo think that the United States has betrayed its closest ally in Asia by taking North Korea off its list of terrorist states in a cynical attempt to broker a nuclear disarmament deal.

To add to Japan’s animosity towards North Korea is the failed investigations behind the Japanese abductees from the 1980’s that North Korea has repeatedly promised to provide information on, along with repeated US pledges to investigate the tragedy more thoroughly. Japan feels there is a much larger threat at hand with the North Koreans than the other members of the six party talks, which includes the US and China, along with South Korea. Japan outside of the framework for the negotiations, has imposed greater sanctions on North Korea, and is the only six party member to refuse energy aid assistance to North Korea.

The illness of Kim Jong-Ill has prompted more fear over the North Korea situation because there is a strong fear produced by South Korean intelligence that when Kim Jong-Ill dies (within a matter of months), there will be extreme military factions over which of the president’s sons becomes the next leader. Foreign governments now generally accept that the “Dear Leader”, whose exploits are hailed as immortal, suffered a stroke in August. He has failed to appear at important events even though the state media have issued photographs showing him to be in apparent good health. However, these photographs were seemingly taken in the springtime. The North Koreans are trying very hard to make Kim Jong-Ill seem healthy, but a stream of intelligence from South Korea, where conservatives took over the government this year, painted a picture of a sick despot, a troubled elite and a dynasty paralyzed by a succession dilemma.

The Times reported:

Enraged by the publicity – and driven to distraction by South Korean activists raining leaflets on the North describing these events – the North Koreans threatened war last week. Japanese militarists, claimed Rodong Sinmun, the ruling party newspaper, were plotting a preemptive strike against the country and will be repulsed in fire and blood. The recent disclosures revealed that both Japan and South Korea keep the North Koreans under intense surveillance and also sent a hostile signal to Pyongyang’s cloistered elite.

The US needs to be extremely wary of the heightened state of the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese willingness to deal with North Korea without international support. The two governments believe privately that Christopher Hill, the US negotiator, mistakenly appeased the North Koreans for the sake of a nuclear weapons deal that the regime has no intention of abiding by.

Japan is a country the US does not want to alienate at this time because of their key role as a recently elected rotating UN Security Council member and their crucial role in the Iran issue. Japan is the one of the largest importers of Iranian crude oil and without Japanese support in US led sanctions, the sanctions would be unsuccessful.

Unfortunately the North Korean problem will not be getting any easier, so the US must take greater care to inform our “friends” like Japan and listen to their positions, creating a stronger more effective force in the negotiations. Japan and South Korea play a larger role in Asia regionally in regards to North Korea, so how these governments act greatly affects the US’ influence in the North Korean negotiations.