Five Reasons for Hope in Iraq

There was an interesting TIME article about Iraq this week: Five Reasons for Hope in Iraq

Face to Face

I attended an Americans for Informed Democracy (AID) conference yesterday about countering terrorism. There was also a screening of the documentary film Beyond Belief, which I recommend everyone to see. It is now available on Netflix. The film was about two women whose husbands died in the planes that crashed into the Twin Towers. After 9/11 they started an organization to help widows in Afghanistan. The film was compelling because the filmmakers did not make a documentary about the women for the viewer to feel sorry for them, while watching it you get the overwhelming sense about how remarkable these two women are and yes they experienced a great tragedy but so did other people, they were able to recognize that they had an incredible family network they could fall back on, while so many women in the world are not as fortunate. The film also did a great job at making afghan women relatable, I think a lot of the media only shows afghan women walked around the desert in pale blue burqas and unfortunately we find it difficult to relate but Beyond Belief included interviews with a few particular afghani women and you feel like you get to know them and you discover that you are not so different from each other.

The other part of the conference I found very informative and interesting was the discussion panel led by Ed O’Connell, the co-Director of RANDS’s Alternative Strategy Initiative. He retired from the military in 2002 and has been working with RAND on the ground in the Middle East ever since. He brought a very interesting perspective to the table. What I really like about his ideas was using non-traditional means that could potentially be very affective. He really emphasized civil society to civil society contact. He didn’t advocate talking to crazy governments, but acknowledging that much of the population has moderate views and the US needs to channel more energy through them. He also spoke about the youth in the Middle East which makes up 2/3 of the population and that they should be the government’s biggest project, they are the future, and new platforms can be used to reach this population like soap operas, the internet, youth groups, and social/health services. He described a Syrian soap opera that is hugely popular that reminded him of the Sopranos but instead of organized crime tearing the population apart terrorism is what tears the main family apart. Although Syria has state sponsored terrorism and is by no means a democratic nation, much of the shows messages that millions of people watch are democratic in nature, and have anti-terrorist propaganda woven in. What Ed O’Connell points out just like Beyond Belief points out people to people our differences are not that big and by acknowledging that we can move beyond a war of provoking to a protective presence. He also highlighted the idea of a Middle East Peace Corps which I thought was very interesting and think it should be seriously looked at by the new administration.

Etiquette 101: What the World Thinks About Us

I was reading Conde Nast Traveler in the hope of someday getting to travel to just a tenth of the places the issue highlighted and came across a great article about American etiquette. The Article provided some interesting insights about American culture and where exactly foreigners get lost in our in your face, overly friendly, desparate need for persocal space culture. Unfortunately the most interesting part on the artcle is not available online, my favorite part were the exerpts from foreign guidebooks to the US. These exerpts were the most telling because each exerpt was from a different country explaining how the french, british, and chinese explain US culture and customs. These explanations said the most about what they think of the US, the best I thought was the French hate that we take picking up dog droppings so seriosuly, maybe not the most telling about our culture as our conversation habits but walking around Nice and Paris a certain sidewalk decoration was hard to avoid!

Islamist Insurgencies in Somalia

In Somalia Islamist fighters have been slowly advancing on the capital. The main Islamist group in the country is al Sharib. The radical Islamists have been capturing cities in southern Somalia over the past two years and imposing strict Sharia law under their control. Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf has admitted Islamist insurgents now control most of the country and raised the prospect his government could completely collapse. The Islamist activity in Mogadishu is undermining fragile U.N.-brokered peace talks to end 17 years of chaos in the Horn of Africa nation.

In 2006 the Islamists ruled Mogadishu and most of south Somalia, but allied Ethiopian and Somali government forces toppled them. The Islamists have waged an Iraq-style guerrilla campaign since then, gradually gaining back territory.

As when they controlled the capital in 2006, the Islamists are again providing much-needed security in many areas but are unpopular with many moderate Muslims in Somalia for also imposing fundamentalist practices.

The Islamist insurgency has triggered a wave of pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden, a vital shipping lane for trade between Europe and Asia. Piracy on the Horn of Africa funds the Islamists’ activity in Somalia.

In response to the heightened violence in Somalia Britain has circulated a draft resolution that would impose new U.N. sanctions on anyone contributing to violence and instability in Somalia. Reuters is reporting:

The draft resolution, distributed to the 15 members of the Security Council, calls for asset freezes and travel bans for anyone engaging in or supporting violence in Somalia, including individuals or companies that violate a 1992 U.N. arms embargo against the lawless Horn of Africa country.

The resolution also targets anyone who obstructs the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Somalia. Britain hopes the resolution will be approved this week. Britain said the idea behind the resolution is to increase the pressure on those responsible for undermining stability in Somalia.

Japan's Sphere of Influence

Japan has been brewing a storm no one in the US seems aware of or concerned with. Current events in North Korea, like President Bush removing North Korea off the terrorist list, supposed nuclear inspections are to take place, but have yet to happen, and North Korean President Kim Jong-Ill’s recent removal from public life due to illness has Japan along with South Korea in a very alert status. While the US has been preoccupied with the election and subsequent results, the only English speaking newspaper to run stories on Japan’s uncharacteristically aggressive stance in relation to North Korea is The London Times.

The North Korean issue is a much more pressing matter for Japan, and recent actions by the US or rather inaction in the Japanese eyes, has evoked a lot of anger in the country, especially with the conservative ruling majority in the country. The Times reported:

Furious officials in Tokyo think that the United States has betrayed its closest ally in Asia by taking North Korea off its list of terrorist states in a cynical attempt to broker a nuclear disarmament deal.

To add to Japan’s animosity towards North Korea is the failed investigations behind the Japanese abductees from the 1980’s that North Korea has repeatedly promised to provide information on, along with repeated US pledges to investigate the tragedy more thoroughly. Japan feels there is a much larger threat at hand with the North Koreans than the other members of the six party talks, which includes the US and China, along with South Korea. Japan outside of the framework for the negotiations, has imposed greater sanctions on North Korea, and is the only six party member to refuse energy aid assistance to North Korea.

The illness of Kim Jong-Ill has prompted more fear over the North Korea situation because there is a strong fear produced by South Korean intelligence that when Kim Jong-Ill dies (within a matter of months), there will be extreme military factions over which of the president’s sons becomes the next leader. Foreign governments now generally accept that the “Dear Leader”, whose exploits are hailed as immortal, suffered a stroke in August. He has failed to appear at important events even though the state media have issued photographs showing him to be in apparent good health. However, these photographs were seemingly taken in the springtime. The North Koreans are trying very hard to make Kim Jong-Ill seem healthy, but a stream of intelligence from South Korea, where conservatives took over the government this year, painted a picture of a sick despot, a troubled elite and a dynasty paralyzed by a succession dilemma.

The Times reported:

Enraged by the publicity – and driven to distraction by South Korean activists raining leaflets on the North describing these events – the North Koreans threatened war last week. Japanese militarists, claimed Rodong Sinmun, the ruling party newspaper, were plotting a preemptive strike against the country and will be repulsed in fire and blood. The recent disclosures revealed that both Japan and South Korea keep the North Koreans under intense surveillance and also sent a hostile signal to Pyongyang’s cloistered elite.

The US needs to be extremely wary of the heightened state of the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese willingness to deal with North Korea without international support. The two governments believe privately that Christopher Hill, the US negotiator, mistakenly appeased the North Koreans for the sake of a nuclear weapons deal that the regime has no intention of abiding by.

Japan is a country the US does not want to alienate at this time because of their key role as a recently elected rotating UN Security Council member and their crucial role in the Iran issue. Japan is the one of the largest importers of Iranian crude oil and without Japanese support in US led sanctions, the sanctions would be unsuccessful.

Unfortunately the North Korean problem will not be getting any easier, so the US must take greater care to inform our “friends” like Japan and listen to their positions, creating a stronger more effective force in the negotiations. Japan and South Korea play a larger role in Asia regionally in regards to North Korea, so how these governments act greatly affects the US’ influence in the North Korean negotiations.

More on Livni

The Ottawa Citizen highlighted Livni's stance on Iran and U.S. relations.

JERUSALEM - Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni attacked U.S. president-elect Barack Obama on Thursday for declaring a willingness to talk with Iran about its nuclear program.

"We live in a neighbourhood in which sometimes dialogue . . . is liable to be interpreted as weakness," Livni told Israeli Radio, expressing a view held by many of her countrymen.

Asked if she supported discussions between the U.S. and Iran, Livni said: "No."

Ahmadinejad Congratulate, Livni Sends Out Warning

Today Iranian President Ahmadinejad congratulated Obama on his election win, (the first time Iran has congratulated a US President since the 1979 Revolution) and went on to say that "nations of the world" expect changes from Obama -- mostly that he will change current U.S. foreign policy.

Ahmadinejad is clearly banking on Obama's willingness to hold direct diplomacy with Iranian leaders as a way to break the impasse between the two countries. How successful this approach will be remains to be seen.

In response to Ahmadinejad's message, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, a contender for prime minister in her country's elections, warned against any dialogue with Iran, the first sign of Israeli disagreement with the incoming U.S. administration.

"Dialogue at this time is liable to broadcast weakness," cautioned Livni. "I think early dialogue at a time when it appears to Iran that the world has given up on sanctions could be problematic."

Israeli officials describe Iran as the biggest threat to the Jewish state's existence, citing Ahmadinejad's frequent calls for Israel's destruction and its development of long-range missiles capable of striking the Jewish state.

While diplomacy is desired it is not absolute in Israeli eyes. Livni doesn't rule out force if U.N. sanctions don't pressure Iran to scale back its nuclear aims. Livni has said Iran "needs to understand the military threat exists and is not being taken off the table."

THERE IS NO DOUBT THE INCOMING U.S. ADMINISTRATION HAS THEIR PLATE FULL.

Kashmir: Up and Down

Fruit had become the symbol of peace in the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan last Tuesday because of the re-opening of trade routes through the region, but sadly dismal relations between the countries returned only a week later on Sunday. India and Pakistan re-opened the trade route through Kashmir last Tuesday; it was the first time the route had been used in more than sixty years. The reopening of the route, which runs across the Line of Control that divides the Himalayan region, is one of several "confidence-building measures" agreed on as part of a peace pact made by the two nuclear-armed neighbors in 2004.

The reopening of the route through Kashmir is especially potent. Kashmir, which both countries rule in part but claim in full, constitutes the core of the disagreement between India and Pakistan sparking three wars since the partition of the subcontinent in 1947. Kashmir has a Muslim majority closely tied with Pakistan but a Hindu ruling elite remaining loyal to India.

The timing of the road's reopening heightens its significance due to months of growing antagonism between India and Pakistan. Unfortunately, the measure didn't prove compelling enough to convince either side to fully commit to peace. Just five days after trade routes opened and peace seemed a viable outcome for Kashmir, Indian soldiers shot dead five members of Kashmir's largest militant group, Hizbul Mujahideen, during an overnight gun battle Sunday.

The progress and hope made possible by the trade route was quickly overshadowed by hasty Indian military action. The depth and range of the Kashmir Conflict is so great, India cannot wholeheartedly commit to righting the situation. India is currently deploying thousands of troops to its area of Kashmir to stop protests on the 61st anniversary of Indian rule as a result of the militant group member’s deaths.

While the rest of India is commended on the success of their democratic government, both Pakistani and Indian Kashmir areas of control are subject to foreign rule. Outside ruling countries originally fueled the conflict through foreign actors like extreme Pakistani Islamists and the Indian Military, but recent uproar has been attributed to Kashmiri citizens, Muslim and Hindi.

There is a deep sense of alienation in the Kashmir Valley due mainly to Indian misrule and mistreatment of the Kashmiri people. Indian remains steadfast in their attempt to retain control of the region and refuses to consider Kashmiri self rule. Pakistan is far more open to Kashmiri self-rule.

What remains problematic for Indian ruled areas of Kashmir is what will become of the minority Hindi population in the region. At present, Hindi rulers are able to buffer conflicts between the Muslim and Hindi citizenry. This constitutes a stumbling block for India in considering Kashmiri self rule. But by not considering self-rule, further division amongst the Kashmir valley is likely to ensue.

It is time for India to rethink its Kashmir policy and actively examine, rather than ignore, options leading to peace in the area, including the demilitarization of the Valley. This is necessary not only for overall peace and progress in the region but under the current circumstances, also to nip communal anger in the bud.

As protests die down in the region and the anniversary of Indian Rule concludes, fruit will regain the main stage in Kashmir. The two countries will recognize the significance of the trade routes and the people of Kashmir will look to the future of their state and not dwell on the past of Indian rule. The Kashmiri conflict has been overlooked by too many for too long. Snippets of issues need to become complete details to garner more support for peace in the Kashmir Valley.

Saudi Efforts Paying-Off

Saudi Arabia is making headway in the fight against Terrorism. The country has long been the fountainhead of jihadist radicalism. Saudi courts have begun procedures to try 991 prisoners held on terrorism charges, in the most sweeping legal action yet taken in the global campaign against the extremists. What is unique about the Saudi court prosecutions is the trials take place under strict Islamic law before a panel of judges who are, like all those in the arch-conservative kingdom, schooled in the strict Wahhabist interpretation that has helped to inspire the ideology of groups such as al-Qaeda itself. Sharia sentences carry greater legitimacy than those given by military tribunals the rest of the World is so keen to hold. The Saudi’s accused not only include active members of al-Qaeda, which carried out some 30 attacks in the kingdom between 2003 and 2006, killing more than 90 civilians and 74 policemen, but also of prominent sheikhs whose sermons justified the violence of the attacks.

The Saudi campaign is unique to the Middle East because unlike other countries that have relied strictly on security forces to counter the threat, the kingdom chose a multi-pronged approach involving public awareness campaigns, legal and educational reforms and religious counseling. Saudi Arabia has another program that seeks to combat jihadist ideas on the internet, where the Saudi government hires moderate religious scholars to engage in debate on extremist chat sites. New laws have made incitement to terrorism over the internet a crime punishable by up to ten years in prison.

Since the September 11th attacks three of the four best-known radical websites that carry publicity releases and chat forums for al-Qaeda have been inactive. Such sites, which are carefully monitored by intelligence agencies, have experienced interruptions before, but this is the first time that several have remained out of action for a long time. The lone surviving site, al-Hesbah, is thought by some experts to have been infiltrated by the Saudis, so as to keep tabs on campaigners elsewhere.

What about Jude Kenan?

Pakistani officials said Jude Kenan will be detained for another two weeks and that's all they would say. The current claim as to why Kenan was found in the FATA area of Pakistan was because he was visiting his Pakistani father. There have been no official statements from his American family in South Carolina. Guess we will have to wait another two weeks for an official Pakistani report.

More about Kenan can be found in The Washington Times.

Unripe for "Dialogue"

The former Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, the country's most powerful opposition leader, called Sunday for dialogue with militants, citing the example of the Northern Ireland peace process. President Zardari and the current government says it will negotiate only with groups that renounce violence. Realistically the Taliban militants in the tribal region are unlikely to renounce violence anytime soon, ESPECIALLY when it is believed Osama bin Laden is hiding in the region.

The bottom line is that the increased violence and conflict between Taliban militants and pro-government forces in the tribal region in Pakistan renders the country unripe for mediation. While Sharif can remain hopeful for a future outcome in Pakistan similar to the Northern Ireland peace process (which has yet to become consigned to history itself), it is not in the country’s best interest to focus on such an unrealistic means to accomplish the goal of peace.

What Sharif fails to account for is the Northern Ireland peace process was over 150 years in the making, while the conflict in the tribal region in Pakistan started relatively recently. Unlike the conflict in Northern Ireland, the conflict in Pakistan has been developed and exacerbated by external and transnational conflicts, especially the war in Afghanistan and continued al-Qaida activity.

The Northern Ireland peace process was mediated by the US with support from Ireland and the United Kingdom, giving legitimacy to the conflicting groups in Northern Ireland. No outside countries have voiced a willingness to nurture a dialogue with the Taliban militants and examine the needs of the Taliban militants.

While Sharif may want to get behind the Taliban militants and give them some legitimacy, unless George W. Bush invites Osama bin-Laden to chat at the White House, like Bill Clinton did with Gerry Adams (the leader of the IRA), Sharif’s call for a dialogue similar to the Northern Ireland peace process is just not going to happen.

Where the current leadership in Pakistan needs to look is towards the future. Taliban militants must not gain a stronger foothold within the country as it is currently in a very volatile situation. The violence in the north is compounded with the dire economic crisis Pakistan has been experiencing over the past year, which accrues to the benefit of militant groups.

The downward economic spiral aids recruitment to extremist groups because it forces more poor families to send their children to free madrassa schools (teaching exclusively religious curriculums). As the former Interior Minister acknowledges, "The canvas of terrorism is expanding by the minute."

"It's not only ideological motivation. Put that together with economic deprivation and you have a ready-made force of Taliban, al-Qaida, whatever you want to call them. You will see suicide bombers churned out by the hundred," he warns.

The secular pro-western government in Pakistan is getting a lot of heat from its citizens for submissively cooperating with US military operations on the Afghan and Pakistan border. With the country on the brink of a revolution, Zardari’s government cannot risk defeat by the Taliban militants. At this point in time in the history of the Pakistani tribal conflict, dialogue is not a conceivable notion. As long as groups like the Awami National Party, the current ruling coalition based in the insurgency plagued tribal region, question the sincerity of the Pakistani Army’s pursuit of the extremists, there is too much corruption and duplicity for a peace process to succeed.

Government organizations, internal corruption in the Pakistani government, party and group alliances, and NATO and US operations, along with domestic Pakistani issues like the 30% inflation rate need to be addressed before a “dialogue” can be used to advance the peace process in the tribal region.

The Northern Ireland peace process is a desirable course but the “process” should be re-evaluated, developed and tailored to the Pakistan tribal region situation. While the IRA was an extremely dangerous terrorist organization, it can by no means be used as a comparison to al-Qaida that spans globally. President Zardari should remain steadfast in his unwillingness to negotiate with groups who do not renounce violence but maintain a pro-active role in regards to the Taliban militants and their operations in the tribal region.

Sharif should focus on garnering support for the emergency $10bn bailout from the international community that the Pakistani Parliament is seeking or work on the severe shortage of electricity that is crippling Pakistani businesses and households.

A Backpacker or an al-Qaeda Agent?

The London Times is running an article about an interesting development in Pakistan this morning after an American Jude Kenan was arrested at a tribal area checkpoint. Rumors are swirling as to why in the world the 20 year old was traveling around the militant infested tribal area of Pakistan. He was found in the area where western intelligence agencies believe Osama bin Laden is hiding. Is he a US spy, an al-Qaeda agent, a would-be American Taleb, an ambitious young journalist or just a backpacker pushing the boundaries of adventure? The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad is still waiting for confirmation on the Pakistani police reports. Interestingly the situation sounds similar to the capture of a US citizen John Walker Lindh in November 2001 while he was fighting with the Taliban.

Regulation Paying Off

While the rest of the world stumbles with bailout plans and sudden economic insecurity, Africa is benefiting from is isolation from the rest of the world. A recent article in The Economist highlights that despite many problems on the continent, optimism and confidence in the continent’s future is abound. Most African countries excluding Zimbabwe have been bringing inflation. GDP has been growing at 5% over the last five years and even with the current economic crisis it is predicted to grow at 6.6%. Africa is predicted to escape the current economy less battered than most places because of the very factors that damaged her in the past are now working in her favor. The African banking sector is excessively regulated, foreign exchange is heavily controlled to prevent heavy investment in Western financial instruments, and foreign ownership of banks is very limited. This de-linkage from the Western financial system has allowed African banks have almost no exposure to the subprime market wreaking havoc everywhere else in the world. Where Africa will be negatively affected by the current economic crisis is the decreasing demand for African commodities. Foreign capital and foreign aid will probably be in decline as well. How Africa will fair in regards to the financial crisis remains to be seen but everything is essentially “so far so good.”

Colonialism and Conflict

Colonialism and Western foreign occupation of the early 20th century in the Middle East has contributed to the current political atmosphere in the region. Western imperial powers created arbitrary nation-state boundary lines, forced the adoption of distinctly western political and economic ideologies, and implemented puppet leadership and oppressive regimes. Current political, religious, tribal, and sectarian tensions in the Middle East have origins in the region’s past of western imperial domination. Although these tensions are indicative of why Winston Churchill’s artificially created boundaries are ineffective in organizing Middle Eastern nation-states, the West cannot be blamed for Middle Eastern governments’ inability to nurture a socio-political atmosphere conducive to creating successful, modern cosmopolitan states. Colonialism cannot be blamed for why countries like Iraq lack success in governance because there are far too many examples of successful Middle Eastern governments that were born out of colonialism.

National boundaries artificially created by the West may be the root cause for much of the conflict in the Middle East, but as John Lukac’s points out in his article for the Boston Globe, Winston Churchill’s Role in the Middle East and Iraq, they did result in stability:

The results of the (West’s) grandiose remaking of the map of the Middle East have remained till this day: Iraq, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia among others are extant entities even now. Whereas twenty years after WWI, Poland and the Baltic states ceased to exist, albeit temporarily, and Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia no longer exist.

This observation illustrates that if sectarian and religious turmoil were the result of poorly designed boundaries that defined the West’s role in decolonizing the region, then these states would have broken apart long ago. What is failed to be recognized by those who have decided the damage from the history of Western imperialism (which was relatively brief compared to the foreign occupation of the Mongols, the Turks, and the Persians in the Middle East) is the reason for turmoil in the Middle East, is that there have been plenty of success stories within the Middle East like Jordan, Yemen, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

This is not to say these countries did not have their share of struggles, but what modern nation has had a conflict free history? The United States as a British imperial colony fought a revolution against its colonizer Britain. The United States also experienced deep ideological divisions that led to an extremely bloody civil war. Presupposing the Middle East would have been better off without the boundary-making West, it leads one to wonder what would the Turks have done in the Middle East if the Ottoman Empire had not been defeated in WWI.

During the Treaty of Versailles, Churchill was praised by the League of Nations for having turned “a mere collection of tribes into a nation in Iraq” in the mandate system that the Sykes-Picot Agreement created to help administer governance in the Ottoman colonies after the war. The accepted doctrine at the time was that tribes should be combined to create larger nation-states. Collective tribes have proved to be extremely beneficial to the success of the governments in Yemen, Bahrain, and Jordan, and more recently with Algeria, and Egypt. By addressing the concerns of the tribes within a country and not focusing on the Islamists, the Jordanian people were able to create an identity of national Jordanian and tribal allegiance before looking to their religious Islamic ties. In an article Mamoun Fandy wrote for The Middle East Policy Journal, Tribe vs. Islam: The Post-colonial Arab State and the Democratic Imperative, he confirms:

Tribe-Islam relations tend to lend support to the superiority of legitimate social organizations, such as the tribe, over ideologies, including Islam (including Shiite and Sunni groups).

King Hussein in Jordan was aware of the strength and ties the people in the Jordanian state held to their tribal affiliations, and his keen observations helped to create the Jordanian state.
What unsuccessful Middle Eastern states have failed to do in introducing and fostering tribal allegiance regardless of present post-colonial borders, discounts the Islam-tribe equation and allows external forces to transform the tribe into a military-backed force within the state. Hizbullah is a prime example of this result. Hizbullah shows the tremendous impact this militant group (a so-called military tribe) can have on the rest of the region as demonstrated by their transnational influence to Lebanon, one of France’s previous success stories until outside forces from Hizbullah and Israel engaged in combat within the sovereign borders of Lebanon. Hizbullah is the very military tribe that Mamoun Fandy warns of in his Tribe vs. Islam article. What is problematic about Hizbullah is there is not a state it is home to. Like the Palestinian Liberation Organization, such a military tribe can be based within a particular state’s borders that permits the military tribe to claim safe haven, but it still must operate across borders. As such, the military tribe poses a hindrance to the regional domination that Western colonialism has actually provided.

Bernard Lewis, in his article What Went Wrong? in the Atlantic Monthly, calls for a new approach in examining the Middle East he said:

For the oppressive but ineffectual governments that rule much of the Middle East, finding targets to blame serves a useful, indeed essential, purpose—to explain the poverty that they have failed to alleviate and to justify the tyranny that they have introduced. They seek to deflect the mounting anger of their unhappy subjects toward other outside targets.

Lewis examines the blame game in the Middle East and firmly adheres to looking forward for solutions, not re-examining how boundaries could have been drawn to accommodate all of the varied interests in the Middle East. If that were the case there would be a Kurdish Nation by now. This realistic approach is helpful in understanding why so many problems must be combated in the Middle East. For such historical divisions to be overcome, they need not be forgotten but merely set off to the side for larger strides to be made in the economic and political institutions that make up the Middle East.

For many Middle Eastern countries, their dependence on oil revenue has allowed for autocratic and tyrannical governments to remain in power despite popular opposition among their citizenry because the governments are not reliant upon their people for financial support. Greater opposition would be voiced by the citizenry, requiring more participation, if there was a unifying issue to protest such as taxation without representation (link to mamoun) and the unequal distribution of oil. Mamoun and Lewis both examine this proposition in their articles about the Middle East. Each claims that it is ludicrous for these countries to not find alternative sources of income because of the uncertainty of oil and outside aid to the countries. Furthermore, the uneven distribution of profits from oil among the people, especially amongst the tribal factions, creates an extremely unstable environment for the governments and the people.

Fair representation is a positive outcome of Western influence in the region. The lack of fair representation in many Middle Eastern governments, as compared to other similarly ethnically and religiously diverse former colonies like India, leads one to question whether Western imperialism was too brief in this region. In India, British occupation lasted a century, so Western culture could be understood and adapted to the Indian culture more fully. This is not to say that Western culture is necessarily superior to that of Middle Eastern or Indian cultures, but positive elements of both systems are more easily fused together when evident for a longer period of time, as was the case with India. Yemen and Jordan were able to identify that the source of a successful and respected government is freedom. Bernard Lewis in his article What Went Wrong? describes this freedom:

It is freedom of mind from constraint and indoctrination, to question and inquire and speak; freedom of the economy from corrupt and persuasive mismanagement; freedom of women from male oppression; freedom of citizens from tyranny.

Middle Eastern countries like Iran and Syria adamantly oppose this Western idea of freedom because their leaders rule based on force and fear from the people. As Western experience amply demonstrates (France being a prime example), freedom and the road to democracy is long and hard, and full of pitfalls and obstacles. Realistic goals should be created for specific Middle Eastern countries. Just as tyrannical monarchies and dictators are in the past for the most part, imperialism is also in the Middle East’s past, and to keep looking back hinders what happens now and in the future for the Middle East.

Mistakes from the past must be acknowledged and avoided in the future; such is the case with the recognition of the importance of tribes in Jordan. It was posited by Sarah Gualtieri in her article Revisioning the Colonial Middle East in the Radical History Review, that more emphasis should be put on tribal affiliations, not Islamist or secular designations, because the designations alienate too many. Tribal groups, unlike secularists, don’t ridicule Islam itself. They remain close to cultural values and make the important distinction that they advocate traditional Islam, which is closer to what is required to live in the real world than pure Islam regardless of sect. Islamists don’t have the broader appeal needed to include all tribal groups. It is important to note that to develop such a moderate government, the outlying groups must become involved; if the leadership remains concentrated the capital city, the leadership will be restricted and unrepresentative of the nation. Jordan’s greatest feat to date was, in empowering those traditionally not in power positions, to increase and widen participation and leadership in government.

Learning from the past is crucial, but obsessing over the past creates distrust and misguided agendas. Italy recently signed an agreement (Elegant Colonialism) to pay five billion dollars in compensation for its colonial rule and misdeeds in Libya. While I agree history must not be ignored, and on a surface level the restitution payment is an honorable gesture for Italy to make, it seems a little late in history for this money to affect those that were hurt most by Italian colonialism. There is no doubt that Italy damaged and retarded the native land and peoples of Libya. Italy, nonetheless, expects to reap great rewards from the agreement like multi-million dollar contracts and tighter security controls over the flow of illegal immigrants. It leaves you to wonder where this leads: if Italy is to go down a colonially themed memory lane, what about restitution for Somalia? There is no doubt Somalia, a former Italian colony, is one of the poorest, most unstable countries in Africa, Italian assistance would surely be of great assistance in Somalia.

In an article written for The Chronicle Review by Dinesh D’souza, Two Cheers for Colonialism, she concludes:

The academy needs to shed its irrational prejudice against colonialism. By providing a more balanced perspective, scholars can help to show the foolishness of policies like reparations as well as justifications of terrorism that are based on anti colonial myths. None of this is to say that colonialism by itself was a good thing, only that bad institutions sometimes produce good results. Colonialism, I freely acknowledge, was a harsh regime for those who lived under it.

While D’souza is referring to the Indian colonial experience, which lasted much longer than the Middle Eastern imperial experience, the message is the same: what’s done is done, it did produce some good results, and don’t get carried away in reaction to it to undo it.
The future is what Middle Easterners have control over, and it is in this realm the question of how the Middle East proceeds becomes so troubling. It is convenient to say “oh this should have happened” but much more difficult to make the decisions that decide the future. Outlying Middle Eastern countries have progressed more quickly in the last half of the century, because there have been incentives to do so. Advances like Turkey’s desired admission to the European Union, Georgia’s hope to be invited to NATO, and the success of federalist governed Iraq were motivated by outside influences. Intergovernmental organizations and institutions along with democratic governance provide the legitimacy and security to these Middle Eastern countries that is so desirable in a multi-polar world order.

Zardari Behaving Badly

You can add high-ranking Islamic clerics and Pakistani feminist groups to Pakistan’s president Asif Zardari’s to his opposition. Not only did Zardari’s inappropriate comments towards Governor Palin during their meeting last week get him in hot water with the Pakistani feminists, he was also issued Fatwa (an Islamic edict) regarding the meeting. What is most peculiar about the Fatwa is that it was not issued until last Thursday, more than a week after the meeting took place. Most of the media including Time magazine thought the whole incidence would blow over, but the Fatwa has made the meeting even more controversial. While the feminists accused the president of sexism and impropriety, the Fatwa was issued because the president shamed the nation with his "indecent gestures, filthy remarks, and repeated praise of a non-Muslim lady wearing a short skirt" according to an article in The Guardian. While the incident is likely soon be forgotten because of the much more pressing issues in Pakistan like the failing economy and militancy on the rise. Zardari has got to be a little nervous though because many Fatwa’s have led to the assinations of Islamic rulers like the Egyptian president Anwar el-Sadat in October 1981. “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer” seems like fitting advice for Zardari.

Where are the Women?

This week’s events involving the UN and a recent discussion I attended led by the Executive Director of Women In International Security (WIIS), Jolynn Shoemaker discussing the role of women in the UN, really got me thinking.

Where are the women?

There is a serious lack of women in high profile UN positions, especially non-western women, who are an untapped and potentially powerful resource to staff and lead peacekeeping missions. From the discussion I learned that women in general are underrepresented in management positions and rarely appointed at the highest levels of leadership. In Jolynn Shoemaker's report she highlights the fact that in 60 years of UN peacekeeping—1948 to 2008—only seven women have ever held the highest position, Special Representative of the Secretary general (SRSG) and of the current 17 missions, there is only one female SRSG. These astonishing facts makes you wonder is the UN really making a concerted effort to hire and retain women in jobs at the UN.

I think the lack of women in senior positions in UN reflects the fact that there are significant cultural and institutional impediments that exist to woman’s entry and advancement within the UN. You can find Shoemaker’s report on the WIIS website. One striking feature of her findings was when women were dismissed from the recruiting process for s senior level position were frequently told that they were not qualified for the position because they did not have military experience, yet of the 16 missions headed by men only three have military experience. Sounds like the recruitment process needs to be a lot more transparent.

Another interesting component of the report is that women tend to self-eliminate based upon their self-perceived inexperience. Yet of the men interviewed for the report none claimed to self-eliminate for their lack of experience. Maybe the UN needs to clarify what the actual qualifications for UN peacekeeping are and not stress military experience, when in reality its not that crucial to have a successful SRSG.

Another popular reason women sited for self-elimination was the UN’s failure to accommodate families because SRSG positions are designed as non-family duty posts, despite the fact that staff from other UN agencies are permitted to bring spouses and children to the very same locations. UNICEF is an example of a UN organization that accommodates families. One interviewee in the report summarized the situation as, “To be successful in the UN, one must be single, widowed, or divorced.” That’s pretty damn discouraging for a large proportion of potential SRSG’s.

With so few women in visible UN positions, there is an incredible amount of pressure on a woman heading missions to succeed. This is extremely troublesome because many missions are doomed to failure from the beginning. Many reasons can be sited for failed missions like poor on-ground planning, failed military operations, uncoordinated agencies, bad communication between local government and UN peacekeepers to name a few reasons why a mission might not work, but I fear that regardless of the actual reason to why a mission failed, it will be attributed to the woman running the show. I think this has a lot to do with a woman’s perceived inability to be forceful, take a hard line, or gain the respect of her male counterparts even if that is not the case.

The issue of not enough women peacekeepers raises another concern that is very specific to the current peacekeeping mission in Liberia led by the SRSG Ellen Magrethe Loj. Loj is currently the only female SRSG. Women have dominated the current Liberian peacekeeping process, but why are the women being concentrated in only one specific mission. Oddly enough the UN experimental police force comprised of only Indian women was implemented in Liberia first. Maybe it has something to do with Liberia having a female president.

The UN whether intentional or not is saying women can only work well with other women. I have to wonder why one specific peacekeeping location is completely female dominated but other missions have very few women. What is the purpose to concentrate all eligible women in one place? What if God forbid something goes wrong with the Liberian mission, Liberia will then forever used as an example of why women should not work in high profile peacekeeping missions. Of course I hope this does not happen and this mission sets a precedent for the UN as to how powerful and committed female UN workers are, whether part of the policing brigade or the SRSG of the mission. It does make me nervous to know all attention is being focused on these remarkable women, but then again maybe I am setting them up for failure and what I should be really doing is applauding all of their brilliant efforts.

Jolynn Shoemaker’s report brings light on many issues that have been over looked for far too long. The UN has recently made a concerted effort to draw from a broader more in-depth pool of applicants and to create committees to increase female participation. Transparency within the recruitment process is growing, but we have yet to see if these processes will become institutionalized. I can only hope fairer employment practices become the norm for the UN for those of us going into the field in the future. The success of future peacekeeping missions is be established now.

Russia Fumbles

President Bush chided Russia for their continued military activity in Georgia, while Russia blames the Georgian media. Here is part of a BBC report on President Bush's UN address:

"The United Nations charter sets forth the equal rights of nations large and small. Russia's invasion of Georgia was a violation of those words."

Mr Bush's comments came hours after Georgia said it had shot down a Russian reconnaissance drone flying over its territory.

It said the unmanned plane was downed south of its de facto border with the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

Russia dismissed the claim as a "media provocation by Georgia".

We would all like the claim about the unmanned plane to be a media ploy by Georgia, but something tells me it's not. When will Russia understand the term sovereignty?

Rice's Criticism of Russian Isolation

BBC video of Condoleezza Rice's Speech about Russia and US relations from September 18.

What's Going on with Russia?

In a article in The Wall Street Journal about recent US and Russia cooperation.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Thursday an increasingly authoritarian Kremlin was taking "a dark turn" toward international isolation. She described Moscow's military occupation of Georgia and its subsequent recognition of the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as illegal acts that threatened Europe's stability.

"Our strategic goal now is to make clear to Russia's leaders that their choices could put Russia on a one-way path to self-imposed isolation and international irrelevance," Ms. Rice said in a speech.

Is Russia choosing international isolation intentionally or has Russia been bullied over the past decade as Samantha Powers suggests in an August 2008 article in Time Magazine? Russia's "brewing rage" should not come as a surprise to anyone. The re-opening of communication between the International community and Russia is crucial for every state’s security, especially Russia’s neighbors. The recent cooperation is a step in the right direction, but Russia has a long ways to go.

Pakistan and Zardari Can't Get a Break

The terrorist attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad on Saturday caused 65 deaths and 270 injuries, not to mention the devastating effect the attack will have on an already fragile Pakistani economy. The attack will accelerate capital flight in Pakistan and demonstrate Pakistan’s instability, discouraging future investment in the country.
Hopefully the bombing in Islamabad will wake everyone up and focus the U.N. and President Bush on all of Pakistan not just the lawless tribal regions.

Check out the article from today about Pakistan in The Wall Street Journal.

A Nuclear Armed State on the Brink of a Meltdown

There is no doubt that Pakistan is in trouble. Benazir Bhutto’s assassination last December has left the country in a downward spiral. Pakistan is on the brink of a balance-of-payment crisis with inflation as high as 24% and foreign reserves quickly depleting, the American financial crisis is just a blip on the radar in comparison to the Pakistani economy. The current Taliban insurgency in the Northern region of the country, combined with US military raids, and the bombing that occurred on September 6th that killed over 30 people, one of 400 Pakistani suicide bombings this year only add to the chaotic environment and unstable government in Pakistan. The country is on the brink of a revolution, which the US should be very wary of.

Asif Zardari, Benazir Bhutto’s husband was recently elected as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. He comes to office with a slew of criminal charges and a corrupt political background. Zardari not only has to overcome his suspicious past but he also needs reunite fractured Pakistan. Pakistan needs Zardari to be a reformer; the Biden-Lugar non-military aid will only work to develop the northern tribal regions in Pakistan if extensive civil-service reform occurs. How willing will police officers be to stop accepting bribes if Zardari continues to do so himself? In a Time article by Aryn Baker the important distinction is made that the US cannot only focus on Pakistan’s security needs, but the US must also pay equal attention to Pakistan’s economic development, education, and health care. If the US and Pakistan fail to put the needs of the country’s citizens first, the Pakistani people will turn to the Taliban.

How successful Zardari will be in realigning with the US government, and implementing the necessary changes in Pakistan remains to be seen. These changes need to be implemented soon or there will be far greater problems with the nuclear armed state on the brink of a revolution.

On another interesting note, articles in The New York Times and The Economist had diverging views on how successful Zardari will be.

The Public Square

The public intellectual has the rewarding, or daunting (if you're the glass half empty type), task of analyzing, redacting, criticizing, and offering remedies to society. While an academic career helps to bolster the credibility of a public intellectual, more work is needed to secure their ability to influence. Influence being what a public intellectual aims to exert. Experience and the ability to communicate to the public at large is what elevates one to the coveted goal of being a recognized public intellectual. The public intellectual must cultivate an aura of being a realist while appearing to be in touch with public sentiments in order to be deemed authentic and wise.

William Easterly has emerged as a premiere example of a public intellectual, easily meeting all of the qualifications necessary to be considered a public intellectual. William Easterly was trained as an academic in economics, emerging from pure academia as one of the foremost experts on developing countries and their market economies, as well as the use and appropriation of foreign aid. William Easterly received his Ph.D. in Economics at MIT and is currently a Professor of Economics at New York University and Co-Director of NYU’s Development Research Institute. He is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a non-resident Fellow of the Center for Global Development in Washington DC.

Easterly has expanded his intellectual role far beyond that of an academic or research institution. He spent sixteen years as a Research Economist at the World Bank implementing theoretical concepts in a real world. Easterly misses few opportunities to give to society by his involvement in many good causes, such as the board of the anti-malaria philanthropy, Nets for Life. He is prolific, the author of Reinventing Foreign Aid, The White Man’s Burden: How the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics, three other co-edited books, and 59 articles in refereed economics journals. Easterly's writings have been discussed in media outlets like the Lehrer Newshour, National Public Radio, the BBC, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, the Economist, the New Yorker, Forbes, Business Week, the Financial Times, the Times of London, the Guardian, and the Christian Science Monitor.

Easterly's reputation in world development stems from his promoting new modes of assistance to developing countries that the numerous Aid Agencies are too bureaucratic to implement. In the ways in which Easterly has expanded thinking about aid, its effectiveness and its best means of implementation, he is showing the world how academics can bring knowledge into the realm of utility, basically "know how". Easterly represents the key combination of academics and experience that is able to inform the world population. It is crucial to put an emphasis on the experience component when claiming the title of public intellectual. Stephen Mack in hi blog The New Democratic Review states in an August 2007 post “The ‘Decline’ of Public Intellectuals?” in regards to the public official’s role,

That is, our notions of the public intellectual need to focus less on who or what a public intellectual is—and by extension, the qualifications for getting and keeping the title. Instead, we need to be more concerned with the work public intellectuals must do, irrespective of who happens to be doing it.

Easterly is the doer Stephen Mack refers to. Easterly has even furthered defined the role of the public intellectual to be a searcher. More precisely in his book Reinventing Foreign Aid he proposes what the searcher must do to further the progress being made in the developing world:

It (poverty) is ended by ‘‘searchers,’’ both economic and political, who explore solutions by trial and error, have a way to get feedback on the ones that work, and then expand the ones that work.

Easterly makes it clear that a searcher holds himself or herself accountable; he further defines the searcher's position:

A searcher admits she does not know the answers in advance; she believes that poverty is a complicated tangle of political, social, historical, institutional, and technological factors. A searcher only hopes to find answers to individual problems of the world’s poor by trial-and-error experimentation.

Besides writing books, opinion editorials, and academic articles, Easterly has testified in US Senate hearings regarding the use of US aid assistance and World Aid Agencies. He sometimes comes off as their biggest critic. While many of Easterly’s development procedures and uses for Aid have yet to be fully enacted, the discourse he has created on the topic has brought much needed attention to the failure of foreign aid and Aid Agencies and the search for better ways to bring aid to communities who need it.

Easterly recently served on the World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland. Easterly openly opposed Bill Gates’ “Kinder Capitalism” incentives. Easterly aimed not to multiply aid support, or centrally plan further economic aid programs, but to hold the governments and agencies dealing with aid accountable for their actions, and where and what the aid was being used for. Easterly is critical of an environment that is “top-down” oriented, where agencies are unable to coordinate because they are so bureaucratic, and the agencies fail to examine the situation on the ground. Planning just doesn’t work. Easterly as a public intellectual uses his real world experience of working with the World Bank (one of the bureaucratic agencies he refers to), researching on the ground in Africa, and focusing his academic studies on the statistics coming out of the developing world from the past 50 years to develop a productive conversation with the developed world and their efforts to help the developing world. In an important side note it is crucial to make clear that Easterly finds the use of “we” referring to the westernized world, extremely problematic within the field.

Easterly’s approach of accountability, “bottom-up” feedback, and real world needs is about modernizing the developing world but by no means westernizing the developing world which he thinks is key part of the problem with the Western World’s aid programs. Easterly in his most recent book quotes F. A. Hayek, a well-known economist in the 1940’s, in describing individuals and progress:

The interaction of individuals, possessing different knowledge and different views, is what constitutes the life of thought. The growth of reason is a social process based on the existence of such differences. It is of essence that its results cannot be predicted, that we cannot know which views will assist this growth and which will not —in short, that this growth cannot be governed by any views which we now possess without at the same time limiting it. To ‘‘plan’’ or ‘‘organize’’ the growth of mind, or for that matter, progress in general, is a contradiction in terms.

Easterly is a strong promoter in his work of analyzing a situation, and trying multiple problem solving tactics to discover which solution is the most effective. He makes it clear, as Hayek says, that you cannot know prior to trying something out what will be most effective. His opinions as to the accountability of the use of aid has indeed had some impact on the US government, although Easterly would like it to be more profound. In 2004, the US Congress passed a law for the Us Agency for International Development to collect data to test socioeconomic benefits of microlending in regards to the World Bank’s microcredit programs. The World Bank can no longer put microcredit forward as the “best practice.” The problem is that microlenders tend to help richer clients, and it’s not always clear if the real world fits the ideal of commercially viable microlending. Easterly fit the key role of a public intellectual to criticize and affect policymaking.

Easterly as a public intellectual plays the role of a “myth buster”. Easterly brings reason to the “run amok enthusiasm” surrounding foreign aid. In a July 2007 article in the Los Angeles Times, Easterly sheds light on the misrepresentations of the African continent. In Easterly’s article “What Bono Doesn’t Say”, he busts the myth that Africa isn’t quite the desolate place we Americans have been led to believe due to the negative images put forth by the media. Easterly is concerned that aid efforts like the Gap Red Campaign, and the Vanity Fair Africa issue, promote only a specific type of Africa,

The problem with all this Western stereotyping is that it manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of some current victories, fueling support for patronizing Western policies designed to rescue the allegedly helpless African people while often discouraging those policies that might actually help. The reality is that many more Africans need latrines than need Western peacekeepers — but that doesn't play so well on TV.

Easterly is putting forth detailed examinations and ideas that are “worth talking about ”. The idea that a class of experts is the best mode to operate has been detrimental to foreign aid. People must remain responsive but that is only possible when the public intellectual reaches out and engages the citizens with issues that are in need of repair with realistic approaches to do so. The ivory tower does not create an environment to engage non ivory tower residents. Easterly criticizes Paul Wolfowitz because of his inability to escape that vary tower in his political role as the president of the World Bank. In an April 2007 Easterly article for The Washington Post “Does He Hear the World's Poor? Don't Bank on It”, Easterly sites academic hubris as the source of Wolfowitz’s inability to perform as the Bank’s president. Easterly said,

The root cause of his debacle at the bank was pretty much the same as the reason for the fiasco in Iraq: intellectual hubris at the top that disdained the messy realities at the bottom.

The public intellectual must work hard to overcome any academic superiority complex to be able to find faults in not just their peer’s studies, but also their own such studies. Easterly’s emphasis on avoiding hubris and stressing independent evaluation is not just applicable to his work in economics and foreign aid, but to society on a whole. In Reinventing Foreign Aid, he puts forth a simple code:

Focusing on specific feasible tasks and holding the aid actors responsible for whether they achieve them is a no-brainer, except for the absence of these simple principles in today’s foreign aid system.

Easterly has been and continues to be an important voice in the forum of economic development. Easterly’s eagerness to create a more successful process in which foreign aid is administered is reason enough to argue the authenticity of his genuine concern to make a difference. Easterly also makes the important distinction in his work to help to modernize but not to westernize the developing world. He remains the realist that keeps the public intellectual a viable resource and key component to change and progress in the developing world.